Maithripala Sirisena appears to be a non
starter. He is supposed to be the common candidate but there is no common
opposition with a common view. There are at least three oppositions with
respect to Presidential elections. The JVP, based on Sarath Silva’s argument,
is of the view that the Presidential elections are illegal if Mahinda Rajapaksa
is allowed to contest. The JVP is thinking of establishing the dictatorship of
the proletariat after an Arab spring, with the support of the western countries,
calling the masses to the streets to protest against the so called illegal presidential
elections. The government of Mahinda Rajapaksa
needs no instructions to deal with the western inspired revolution (Arab
Spring) of the JVP.
The opposition led by Chandrika
Kumaratunga thought that at least thirty MPs would cross the floor of the House
on the final day of the budget debate and would have wanted the former
President to become the Executive Prime Minister within one hundred days from
the day of the elections. This opposition thought that they have the majority
in the SLFP Parliamentary group and was counting heads and days of the final
cross over before the Sinhala New Year. They wanted the former secretary of the
SLFP, whose membership of the Party has been suspended by the President of the
Party who apparently has the authority to do so as laid down by the
constitution of the Party, to be the common candidate on the strength of those
who were supposed to cross over. The UNP and Maithripala Sirisena will go on
referring to the constitutional secretary of the SLFP and the de facto
secretary the way some pundits refer to the de facto Chief Justice, in vain. Ven.
Athureliye Rathana Thera was apparently involved in negotiations with the de
facto dissolution of the good governance movement of Ven. Maduluwawe Sobhitha
Thera and the academic trade unionists and left out leftists, by promoting the
candidature of Maithripala Sirisena. Chandrika Kumaratunga was aiming to become
the executive prime minister within hundred days of the elections through
Maithripala Sirisena. They were thinking of making use of the present
Parliament to amend the constitution, oust Mahinda Rajapaksa loyalists from the
SLFP and the government, and getting Maithripala Sirisena to appoint Chandrika
Kumaratunga as the Prime Minister first (after making her an MP on the national
list) and then the executive Prime Minster, through the amended constitution.
The Chandrika opposition worked with
“Pivithuru Hetak” of Ven. Athureliye Rathana Thera and was able to convince the
UNP opposition, which is the third opposition, that Maithripala Sirisena should
be the common candidate. They made their claim on the strength of the intended
cross over MPs and the UNP opposition
had to give in. The western countries
support all the three oppositions and for them it is a case of defeating
Mahinda Rajapaksa and installing a weak leader as the President or the Prime
Minister. They are behind the GTF aspiration of defeating Mahinda Rajapaksa and
producing him before a so called international jury. Probably they would like
to have Maithripala Sirisena as the President or the Prime Minster as he is the
weakest out of the lot. However, the UNP opposition settled for Maithripala
Sirisena as the common candidate on two conditions. Firstly they wanted the
thirty odd cross over MPs Chandrika and Maithripala were boasting. Secondly the
UNP opposition wanted Maithripala Sirisena to appoint Ranil Wickremesinghe as
the executive Prime Minster. Chandrika Kumaratunga would have probably agreed
to the conditions knowing very well that MoU’s are nothing but statements of misunderstandings.
She who promised the JVP to abolish the executive presidency simply threw it to
the wastepaper basket according to a powerful minister of the government.
However, within the last few days the
UNP apparently has changed its positions. It is now not thinking of amending
constitution, abolition of executive presidency etc., but of installing Ranil
Wickremesinghe as the Executive President (not the Prime Minister) within 24
hours of Maithripala Sirisena becoming the President. All these are figments
imagination as Maithripala Sirisena has no chance of winning the presidential
elections on the eighth of January. In practice nobody wants to abolish the
executive presidency but the cat has jumped out of the bag in the case of the
UNP. They want none other than Ranil as the EXECUTIVE PRESIDENT. Tissa Attanayke
the boy from Hasalaka was telling Maithripala Sirisena the boy from
Polonnanuruwa that the executive
presidency should be confined to Kollupitiya and Kurunduwatte, when the two
boys met at Siri Kotha on Thursday. At
the press conference Tissa Attanayake specifically said that Ranil
Wickremesinghe should be made the executive president within 24 hours under the
Article 37(1) of the constitution. The UNP is planning to invoke Articles 43(3)
and 31(1) in this regard. The relevant Articles are as follows.
43. (3) The President shall appoint as Prime Minster the
Member of Parliament who in his opinions is most likely to command the
confidence of Parliament.
37. (1) If the
President is of the opinion that by reason of illness, absence from Sri Lanka
or any other cause he will be unable to exercise, perform and
discharge the powers, duties and functions of his office he may
appoint the Prime Minister to exercise, perform and discharge the powers,
duties and functions of the office of President during such period, and may
also appoint one of the other Ministers of the Cabinet to act in the office of
Prime Minister during such period:
Provided that if the office of Prime
Minister be then vacant or the Prime Minister is unable to act, the President
may appoint the Speaker to exercise, perform and discharge the powers, duties
and functions of the office of President during such period.
It appears that the UNP strategy is to
appoint Ranil as the Prime Minister soon after Maithripala Sirisena takes oaths
using Article 43(3), and then get the latter to “abdicate” with the help of
37(1). This implies that Maithripala Sirisena has to admit that he is unable to
exercise, perform and discharge the
powers, duties and functions of his office as the President, on his own, and
then appoint the new Prime Minister who
is none other than Ranil to exercise, perform and discharge the powers, duties
and functions of the executive presidency. Poor Maithripala Sirisena will be
nobody after that and the UNP would rule the country with Ranil as the de facto
executive president.
It is very unlikely that the Chandrika
opposition would agree to this master plan by Tissa Attanayake and the UNP, and
most probably would object to it vehemently unless Chandrika Kumaratunga in her
usual way decides to treat any MoU as a statement of misunderstanding that
should be thrown into the wastepaper basket as soon as possible. If the
Chandrika opposition together with Ven. Athureliye Rathana Thera decides to
oppose the strategy of the UNP opposition then Maithripala Sirisena will be a
non starter.
In any event Maithripala Sirisena is a
prisoner of the Chandrika and the UNP oppositions and being a former member of
the SLFP, could be expected to be more loyal to the Chandrika opposition than
to the UNP opposition. What the UNP should realise is that any MoU or any
agreement with locals is only a piece of paper as far as Chandrika Kumaratunga
is concerned and the UNP master plan will never see the light of the day, even
if Maithripala Sirisena were to win the elections. However, none of these plans
would work as it is a foregone conclusion that Maithripala Sirisena is to lose
the elections polling less than what
Sarath Fonseka polled last time.
Nalin De Silva
28-11-2014