How to solve a problem like Mahinda,
must be a question asked in London, Washington and may be a few other cities in
the west. However, it is a major problem in London and a problem to a great
extent in Washington, which will be solved by the west in their usual
“democratic” way of good governance and what not by demanding blood. Mahinda
Rajapaksa who defied the west by not allowing them to send a ship to rescue
Prabhakaran has been hated by the west since his policy on Palestine as a young
MP in the Sri Lankan Parliament. Mahinda Rajapaksa is anti colonial though he
is compelled to follow western economic models and even the politics that
include western type executive Presidency. The thirteenth amendment though
linked with India or rather Gandhi family is the product of the west, mainly
England and US as well. With Mahinda Rajapaksa there will be no more devolution
in the sense of the thirteenth amendment and the west is not happy with it.
Mahinda Rajapaksa has cordial relationship with China not to the liking of
London. In this regard Washington that cannot survive without Beijing is
helpless with the fragile economic situation.
The west has intervened indirectly in
the problem of Mahinda through various means including economic sanctions in
the garment industry, fish industry, and involving people such as Solheim, the
Tamil leaders in the Global Tamil Front and other organisations of dispersed
Tamils in the west, the western intellectuals so called experts in Sri Lankan
studies without much success. They are propagating the usual story (post modern
narrative) of Mahinda Rajapaksa being a dictator but within Sri Lanka it has failed
to gain any currency, except those in the western educated circles who have
been in A/L classes in schools irrespective of the medium of instruction and
the schools they attended. Personally I
have much more freedom now than in the days of
JRJ, Premadasa, Ranil, Ranjan Wijeratne, Charitha Ratwatte and others
including Chandrika Kumaratunga who had no inkling of nationalism in them. I
had been under death threat in the times of many of them, and my freedom of
expression had been curtailed by their orders to the editors of newspapers. It
has to be mentioned that except for Premadasa the others had been so called
elite in the country.
The west gets the support of Sri Lankans
as well in their attempt to solve the problem of Mahinda and invariably they go
to the usual pundits in the universities and so called research institutes who
were trained by the westerners, the political parties such as the UNP, the TNA
and even the JVP that is now controlled by the US after Anura Dissanayaka
became the leader, the activists in western governmental organisations that are
maintained by the west, and the few expats who had gone to west in search of
political asylum. These asylum seekers
are maintained by the west and as long as they do not agitate against the
violation of human rights by the host country they are safe. The west wants to
solve the problem of Mahinda the way they solved similar problems in the other
parts of the world. That is by ousting Mahinda Rajapaksa from the executive
presidency of the country.
However, the west has to oust Mahinda Rajapaksa through political
action involving elections at present and the forthcoming Presidential
elections are a God given opportunity for the west. They want a weak President
whom could be dictated terms, and who would devolve power to the Northern and
Eastern provinces, destabilize the country and finally bifurcate or trifurcate
the country. Once Mahinda is ousted he would be taken before a so called
international jury for “war crimes” and be sent to gallows. The GTF boss who came on TV with a UNP MP and a
“Liberal” MP from Sri Lanka did not mince words in his aspirations. These
aspirations are those of the western countries though they take a back seat at
the moment.
The west wants to introduce a weak
candidate as possible but who could draw votes as well. Ranil W is not the best
of the candidates though he would dance to the tune of London. He does not have
a Charisma that could attract Sinhala votes and
he is loser from the very
beginning. Chandrika K is too old and also she has been disqualified by Sarath
Silva. The argument of Sarath Silva is valid in the case of Chandrika though it
does not hold water in the case of Mahinda Rajapaksa as we have shown in these
columns. Karu Jayasuriya had the support of the west but the UNP could not come
to a decision to support him as there was much opposition to his candidature. Then
the west had Ven. Masduluwawe Sobhitha Thera who had been canvassing for so
called good governance together with some academic trade unionists and left out
leftists. However he was not favoured as it was clear that the Thera does not
have a mass base.
The JVP in the meantime had been taking
a different line altogether based on Sarath Silva’s argument, and claiming that
the Presidential elections are illegal if Mahinda Rajapaksa is allowed to
contest. This is a fall back position as far as the west is considered and they
would be thinking of drawing masses to the streets when Mahinda Rajapaksa wins
the elections. The government would have to take precautionary action in order
to avoid an Arab Spring. The second option as far as the west is concerned for
an Arab Spring is to have a “nonagatha” uprising after preventing Mahinda
Rajapaksa getting 50% of the valid vote. The time between the first count and
the second preferences has been named the “nonagatha” period and at the last
Presidential elections they would have executed the uprising through Sarath
Fonseka had Mahinda Rajapaksa failed to get the all important 50% of the valid
vote. This time again Mahinda Rajapaksa would get more than 50% of the vote and
there is no possibility of a “nonagatha” Arab Spring.
The Jathika Vyaparaya (National
Movement) had been politicized by the JHU first and then by the JNP of Wimal
Weeravansa. Once the Jathika Vyaparaya was politicized, Mahinda Rajapaksa who
has nationalist credentials became the leader of the politicized Jathika
Vyaparaya to the disillusion of both the JHU and the JNP. It is true that
Mahinda Rajapaksa and the SLFP do not have nationalist economic policies then
neither the JHU nor the JNP has. However, they were critical of the economic
policies of the government and Wimal Weerawansa calling the Secretary to the Treasury
an “Arthika Ghathakaya” (destroyer of the economy) was seen to be getting ready
to move out of the government. The Deshahithaishee Jathika Vyaparaya (DJV)
headed by Gunadasa Amrasekera is only a mouthpiece of the JNP and their monthly
magazine “Muragala” was giving all the indications that the nationalists should
leave the government. These were ominous signals that the JHU lost no time in
picking up. However, at the UVA provincial council elections the JNP learnt its
“strength” as far as their mass base is concerned (polling around 300 votes in
the electorates in the Badulla District where they went alone independent of
the UPFA) and soon gave up their rhetoric . However, the JHU thinking of an
expanded middle class that they thought got their political lie from Ven.
Gangodawils Soma Thera, was not humble enough and went on challenging Mahinda
Rajapaksa. Ven. Athureliye Rathana Thera was the most vociferous and he was
associated with Ven. Maduluwawe Sobhitha Thera on the good governance project. The JHU was in
a hurry to come to power and in the process has played into the hands of the
west.
All these groups and individuals, except
the JNP and the JVP, have now apparently selected Maithripala Sirisena as the
so called common candidate. Sirisena is the weakest of the lot and he would be
preferred by the west. The man who as the Minster of Health could not face the
western doctors in Sri Lanka and come out with a plan to cure the Kidney
patients is not going to stand up to western leaders or even to the western
high commissioners and ambassadors. He will do whatever Ranil dictates on the
instructions of the west but would have to win a Parliament with two third
majority in order to make Ranil the executive Prime Minister. The west wants to
abolish the executive Presidency as it would help to defeat Tamil racism of the
dispersed Tamils and their sponsors.
Though Maithripala Sirisena satisfies
the criteria for a weak President he has been unable to deliver the goods in
the form of crossovers. It was apparently his and Chandrika’s promise to bring
thirty odd MPs from the SLFP that finally obtained the concurrence of Ranil to
stand down but with those thirty voting for the budget has created dissension
in the opposition. I would not be surprised if Maithripala Sirisena is forced
to withdraw from the race. I am not trying to say that everything is planned in
London, but they have may have to think of a more common candidate.
Nalin De Silva
26-11-2014