The Uva
provincial Council has been won by the SLFP. Though officially the candidates
contested under the UPFA it was SLFP all the way from the day of nominations
and the other constituent parties except of JNP of Wimal Weerawansa and some
Tamil parties were not to be seen in any of the two districts Badulla or
Moneragala. Even the JNP did not support the SLFP in Badulla having decided to
go it alone in that district. However, what has to be noted is that in Badulla
district the SLFP (UPFA) polled more than 51% of the valid vote in the Badulla
district. In the Moneragala district the SLFP obtained around the magic number
two third of the vote.
It is clear that at a Presidential
election the SLFP (UPFA) would obtain much more than the required percentage of
50% both at Badulla and Moneragala. If the SLFP could poll around 51% in the
Provincial Council elections at the Presidential elections where the candidate
would be none other than Mahinda Rajapakse, whatever Sarath Silva has to say
between now and then, and what the good governance Bhikkus have to say on the
common candidate , no soothsayer or a so called Political Analyst is needed to
predict the outcome. Ranil Wickremesinghe is no match for Mahinda Rajapakse and
the Rajapakses would be there at least until 2020.
It is true that the UPFA did not do well
at the Uva Provincial Council elections compared to 2009 elections. However,
2009 elections were held soon after the Nandikadal victory, and it cannot be
considered as a normal situation by any stretch of imagination. The 2014
elections have to be compared with that of 2004 and the SLFP has not lost its
mass base during the last ten years.
Even then it has
to be kept in mind that the Nandikadal victory continues to influence the
decisions taken by the people at elections and the SLFP receives the
nationalistic vote that was in favour of defeating the LTTE terrorists in 2009.
It is not the norm that the party that “won a war” should be returned to power
soon after the war as Churchill would have confessed in relation to the Labour
victory after the so called second world war.
The English
voters and the others did not think that Churchill was fit to govern England
and its colonies not only in British Isles but in the rest of the world. Most
probably if Churchill came to power India would not have gain independence from
the English and the voters in England and its colonies in the British Isles did
not want to continue with the “empire” on which the Sun never set.
What is
important to note in Sri Lanka is that the Sinhala people as well as the Tamils
living outside the Northern Province do not endorse the 13th amendment. It is
only in the Northern Province, if at all, the people may be in favour of the 13th
amendment, but there is no clear cut verdict on this. The TNA and the Illankai
Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK – so called Federal Party though ITAK means Lanka
Tamil State party) appear to be the only parties (ITAK is a constituent of TNA)
that are in favour of devolution of power to the Provincial Councils more than
that is envisaged in the thirteenth amendment as even the APRC (All Party
Representative Committee) members somewhere in 2008 signed a document to the
effect that the relevant clauses of the thirteenth amendment would be
implemented, clearly implying that not all the clauses of the said amendment
would be implemented.
This incident
took place after a stormy session of the
APRC where devolution of police and land powers to the Provincial Councils was
discussed. The APRC could not come to a decision as there was no unanimity
regarding the issue. However, India had wanted some kind of statement on the
issue and finally the APRC members and the Party leaders met with the President
to “iron out” any differences if it was possible.
I was a member
of the APRC and I remember at the meeting with the President, some ministers
such as Nimal Siripala de Silva were for more devolution but the President indicating
that he was not in favour of devolution of land and police powers to the
Provincial Councils. Finally the APRC members signed a document, mainly for
consumption of India, that the relevant clauses of the thirteenth amendment
would be implemented. Needless to say that the relevant clauses would have been
be decided by the government of Sri Lanka and not by the government of India.
At the Uva
Provincial Council elections in the Badulla district some Tamils contesting as
UPFA members have been elected as members of the Provincial Council and it is
very likely that the young Thondaman who was nearly killed as a result of a
motor vehicle accident would be appointed as a minster of the Provincial
Council. It is very unlikely that the people in the Badulla district gave their
preferential votes to Thondaman in order to devolve more powers to the Northern
Provincial Council as a solution to the so called ‘grievances” and
“aspirations” of the TNA and some other Tamil politicians in the Northern
Province.
It is also
significant that the minsters Nimal Siripala de Silva and Dilan Perera lost
their respective electorates Badulla and Haliela. These two ministers are known
for their devolutionary politics and though Dilan Perera for all his policies
in favour of the thirteenth amendment have come under the wrath of Harin
Fernando, Nimal Siripala de Silva has been showered with praise by the person
who thought that he could become the Chief Minister of the Uva Provincial
Council. In spite of his devolutionary
politics it is very unlikely that Dilan Perera worked for the UNP under the
table, but people have other stories to
tell of the other minster from Uva.
Harin Fernando
is not a paragon of virtue, as none other than Sajith Premadasa would testify, and if not for his unauthorized
vehicle demonstration after the election, Haliela incident would not have taken
place and a proper inquiry into the entire incident should be held. Hiran
Fernando behaves as if he as a battalion of 173,000 who can be brought to the
street at any time. As Dilan Perera has said Hiran Fernando would be luck to
bring 5000 people to the streets. In any event when Fernando talks of briniging
173,000 people to the streets he is having some other plans and not
democratically ousting the newly elected administration of Shashindra
Rajapakse. Moreover, Hiran Fernando has said he together with the JVP leader in
the province would make sure that Rajapakse would not have a peaceful time at
the Provincial Council meetings.
Dilan Perera
should think hard of his devolutionary politics and unlike Nimal Siripala de
Silva has a long way to go. Perhaps Perera has a friendly chat with Thondaman
on devolutionary politics and take a decision without much delay and work for
the betterment of Haliela people in particular and Uva peasants in general and
of course for the SLFP that is certain to be in power under Mahinda Rajapakse
at least until 2020.
Nalin De Silva
26-09-2014
