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Wednesday 15 October 2014

The JVP and the UNP to take to streets

Who said the UNP is democratic and non violent? It has to be somebody who has come from a different galaxy and not from the Milky Way. From 1931 when universal franchise was introduced  by the English, thinking that the Senanaykes and others who had a “decent education” in schools they established could deceive the hoi polloi and look after the country for the colonialists. The UNP and its predecessors have been to all sorts of anti democratic crafts including non violence. Distribution of money to the voters, influencing the poor voters through various corruptions, and applying terror on the LSSP supporters were very common in that golden era. Stoning the houses of Judges came long after during the more golden (is it the diamond) era of the Jayawardhanes. There are no democratic parties in the world, but parties who wait for an opportunity to become undemocratic. If one doesn’t believe one could ask Obama, or Ranil since Senanayakes and Jayawardhanes are no more

The political parties are undemocratic by nature and are only camouflaged, and pretend to be democratic. The Marxist parties of yesteryear had no misgivings about it as they had their own morals following Trotsky and of course Stalin who did not talk of “their morals and our morals” but only practiced them. Lenin the shrewd master was the teacher of both them. The JVP now preaches values of democracy and franchise and questions whether Mahinda Rajapakse could contest a third time. Their respect for democracy has been demonstrated number of times and Sinhala people though with short memories are not suffering from dementia as a nation. The JVP has swallowed Sarath Silva’s argument completely ignoring simple English and of course even without referring to the Sinhala version of the constitution and the eighteenth amendment. We have already commented on Sarath Silva’s argument which is only an interpretation that has been elevated to the status of a gospel truth by people with vested interests. The interpretation rests mainly on the following Article of the Constitution.

“31 (2) No person who has been twice elected to the office of President by the People shall be qualified thereafter to be elected to such office by the People”. The crucial words are “been twice elected” , “not”,  “be qualified to be elected to” , and “thereafter”. The word thereafter is very important but we know that it does not imply for ever, or at least until the Milky Way lasts.  The word thereafter defines a very limited time interval and it has meaning only until the particular Article is valid, and not after that. The law makers for some reason or other have not stated that until the person meets with his death or words to that effect. A person who has not been elected for a third time (who did not contest for a third time in his life time when a Presidential election was being held) could be interpreted as a person who did not become eligible under 31(2). However, it has to be remembered that it is again only an interpretation and it could be changed from Judge to Judge. What is accepted is the interpretation given by the Supreme Court Judges and not by the ex Judges, and that is since there is no higher court than the Supreme Court.  Under the above category there exists only one living person and that is none other than Chandrika Kumaratunga. Mahinda Rajapakse belongs to a different category as he did not have an opportunity to become disqualified under 31(2). The thereafter did not affect him as the Article  31(2) was repealed before he could become disqualify to contest. He did not have an opportunity of contesting for a third time while 31(2) was effective. Thus Mahinda Rajapakse has not become disqualified to contest for a third time. In the Sinhala version it is more complicated as there is no form for future tense in Sinhala.

I do not want go into a detailed analysis of the Sinhala version that has the official status when it comes to interpretation whether the TNA MPs who are lawyers travel in Yal Devi or not with the President, like Sinhala interpretations. However, neither Sarath Silva, the UNP the JVP Ven. Sobhitha Thera nor  anybody else seems to be interested in the Sinhala version. The crucial word there is novanneya.

The Sinhala language has only two tenses and they are past and non past. There is no present or future as such! Kumaratunga Munidasa pointed out this long time ago but it has not been familiar with the lawyers though there are few of that paternity who sympathize with the Hela Havula. The JVP could have taken up the issue but they appear to be more western than even Ranil Wickremesinghe , and appear to go after the westerners and Sarath Silva. It may be that the JVP is not aware of the subtle points in Sinhala grammar.

However, the JVP appears to be knowledgeable in Arab springs and Sarath Silva type interpretations. They have already said that they would not contest at the Presidential elections as a protest against Mahinda Rajapakse contesting for a third time. It is still not known the interpretation of the Supreme Court on this matter and already the JVP appears to have concluded that Mahinda Rajapakse would be contesting at the next Presidentail elections with the Supreme Court deciding in favour of him. What the JVP would have done is to nominate a candidate and withdraw him/her if the Supreme Court allows Mahinda Rajapakse to contest for a third time. Of course the JVP could say it is not possible to withdraw theoretically but for all practical purposes they could have withdrawn from the elections if they desired.

However, it is clear that they are preparing for an Arab spring with western patronage. Their aim is to pretend that they are super democrats but to sabotage Presidential elections claiming that the elections are illegal. They want to bring the people to the streets and stage a revolution! The JVP that cannot poll more than 3% of the valid vote would like to capture power claiming that the real power is gained through bullet and not ballet. However, they would be dealing with Mahinda Rajapakse and not even Ranasinghe Premadasa.

The UNP is preparing for a count of the second preferential. It has a mass base of only about 40% of the valid vote even with the support of the TNA and other Tamil racists and has to depend on second preferences to win the Presidential elections. This is a long shot with Mahinda Rajapakse gaining about 55% of the valid vote. The UNP plan would succeed only if Mahinda Rajapakse gains less than 50% of the valid vote which is the most unlikely event to take place, if he contests. There is no reason for people to select Ranil in preference to Mahinda unless they are UNP by “birth” and/or upbringing.

However, the UNP appears to think that there would be a “nonagatha” period after the first preferential is counted but before the second preferential count is begun and if the JVP has not been successful with their revolution (the UNP could even help the government to defeat the JVP) to call the people to the streets. It is the UNP Spring that would pose a threat to the government as.  western forces would back Ranil and the UNP to the hilt.

Some people would say   I am day dreaming but the trend of world politics is such that anything is possible these days. The UNP will have to do a survey soon to find out if they could force the Commissioner of elections to go for a count of second preference, and if not their best bet would be to support the JVP spring and then defeat the JVP soon after. In any event all these plans are destined to be doomed with people asking the question why they should vote for a person of the “caliber” of Ranil Wickremesinghe who signed a pact with Prabahakaran with the blessings of the westerners. 

Nalin De Silva